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NeurIPS 2026U TorontoU of Toronto; VectorBayesian & probabilistic methods

Sequential Probability Assignment against Smoothed Adversaries with Unknown Base Measure

Ziyi Liu, Dan Roy

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U PennsylvaniaBayesian & probabilistic methods

Inference and Uncertainty Quantification for Streaming $r$-PCA

Haoshu Xu, Hongzhe Li

Atlanta Poster Session 3, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Stanford University, Department StanfordStanfordBayesian & probabilistic methods

An exact information theory of generalization phase transitions in Bayesian diffusion models

Henry Hunt, Mason Kamb, Surya Ganguli

Paris Poster Session 6, Fri, Dec 11, 2:30 PM–4:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026IndependentHarvardBayesian & probabilistic methods

Archimedean Copula Inference via Taylor-Mode AD

Cambridge Yang, Dongdong Li

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026The University of TokyoThe University of Tokyo/RIKEN-AIBayesian & probabilistic methods

Parallel Computation Algorithms and Convergence Guarantees for Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics

Yoshihito Okamoto, Huanjian Zhou, Taiji Suzuki

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026SpotlightEindhoven University of TechnoloEindhoven University of TechnoloU AmsterdamBayesian & probabilistic methods

On the Tightness and Computational Tractability of Higher-Dimensional Confidence Sequences

Fabian Denoodt, Sibylle Hess, Joaquin Vanschoren, Christian Andersson Naesseth

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U CambridgeBayesian & probabilistic methods

Contour Monte Carlo: Sampling via Energy Level Sets

Varun Jain, Hong Ge

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Universität RegensburgBayesian & probabilistic methods

Constrained Bombieri Point Processes

Cornelius Brand

Paris Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–7:00 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026TsinghuaNational University of SingaporeUBCBayesian & probabilistic methods

How Much Information is Needed for Accurate Kalman Filtering?

Wenhan Cao, Xuyang Chen, Shuyuan Wang, Lin Zhao

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026DukeBayesian & probabilistic methods

Extending ROC Analysis to Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction with an Interval-Based AUC (iAUC)

Yuqi Li, Matthew Engelhard

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U CambridgeU Texas at AustinThe University of Texas at AustiUT AustinBayesian & probabilistic methods

One-Shot Private Confidence Regions via Resampling

Po-Ling Loh, Debepsita Mukherjee, Shourya Pandey, Purnamrita Sarkar

Atlanta Poster Session 4, Thu, Dec 10, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026The Institute of Statistical MatRIKENRIKEN AIPBayesian & probabilistic methods

Incorporating Neural Network Structure in the Bayesian Learning Rule

Eiki Shimizu, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan, Thomas Möllenhoff

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026PekingBayesian & probabilistic methods

Denoising Implicit Variational Inference

Zitong Wang, Zekun Wu, Longlin Yu, Cheng Zhang

Atlanta Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U MichiganBayesian & probabilistic methods

Cross-Fitting for Neural Posterior Estimation

Jeffrey Regier

Atlanta Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026FudanIndiana University, School of MeOregon Health SciencesShanghai University of Finance aBayesian & probabilistic methods

Efficient Variational Inference for Log-Gaussian Cox Processes via Voronoi Tessellation

Yanshuo Liu, Jiaheng Qu, Sha Cao, Chi Zhang and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Laboratoire d'Informatique Aix Marseille UnivAix MarseilleBayesian & probabilistic methods

Online Active Testing: Adaptive Importance Sampling for Unbiased Risk Estimation in Data Streams

Hugo Schmutz, Hachem Kadri, Thierry Artières

Paris Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–7:00 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Shanghai Jiao TongBayesian & probabilistic methods

Uncertainty Quantification of Least Squares Estimator for Generalized Orthogonal Procrustes Problems

Shenghan Luo

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität MInstitute of Computer Science, LStats Department, LMU MunichL3S Research Center, Leibniz UniDFKI (German Research Center forBayesian & probabilistic methods

Deferred Aggregation in Hierarchical Bayesian Optimization

Valentin Margraf, Jonas Hanselle, Julian Rodemann, Marcel Wever and 2 more

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026National University of SingaporeNational University of SingaporeBayesian & probabilistic methods

Conformal Prediction for Distribution-to-Distribution Regression

Trung-Khang Tran, Tuan Hoang, Viet-Hoang Tran, Tan Nguyen

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Mohamed bin Zayed University of Skolkovo Institute of Science anTechnology Innovation InstituteBayesian & probabilistic methods

VecUQ-OT: Aggregating Uncertainty Measures via Multivariate Ranks

Nikita Kotelevskii, Vladimir Kondratyev, Maiya Goloburda, Alexander Fishkov and 3 more

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026OralLMU Munich, MCMLMohamed bin Zayed University of Technology Innovation InstituteMarburguniversityBayesian & probabilistic methods

The Aleatoric-Epistemic Dichotomy of Uncertainty is Meaningful and Indispensable for Machine Learning

Yusuf Sale, Nikita Kotelevskii, Maxim Panov, Eyke Hüllermeier

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026CyberAgent / TohokuMBZUAI / RIKEN AIPBayesian & probabilistic methods

Posterior-Tracking for Best-Arm Identification in Bernoulli Bandits

Kaito Ariu, Junpei Komiyama

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U British ColumbiaU PittsburghBayesian & probabilistic methods

Routing as a Singular Reparameterization: A Closed-Form Pushforward Prior and Exact Bayesian Complexity in a Minimal Proxy

Ali Mehrabian, Mahdi Mazloum

Atlanta Poster Session 6, Fri, Dec 11, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Johns HopkinsBayesian & probabilistic methods

Fixed-Size Active Statistical Inference

Erik Skalnes, Michael Oberst

Atlanta Poster Session 3, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026ByteDance Inc.PurduePurdue University Bayesian & probabilistic methods

Breaking the $\sqrt{d}$ Communication Barrier in Federated Sampling with Adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Jiajun Liang, Linxuan Wang, Guang Lin, Qifan Song

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U British ColumbiaU MelbourneU British Columbia + AmiiBayesian & probabilistic methods

Bet Imaginatively, not Historically in Independent-Data Sequential Testing

Nathaniel Xu, Feng Liu, Danica J. Sutherland

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Electronic Science and TechnolBayesian & probabilistic methods

Recovery Guarantees for Posterior Sampling of One-Bit Compressed Sensing

jing ma, Yujia Wu, Zhaoqiang Liu

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U OsloU CambridgeU Oslo, INTEGREAT, TRUSTBayesian & probabilistic methods

Breaking Curse of Dimensionality for Mutual Information Estimation with Vine Copulas

Sigurd Holmsen, Berit Øksnes, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Sylvia Richardson and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026PurdueBayesian & probabilistic methods

Sticky Jump Diffusions: A Unifying Framework for Discrete, Continuous, and Hybrid Diffusion

Pascal J Dube, Patrick Pynadath, Jeremy Lu, Yuan Gao and 1 more

Atlanta Poster Session 5, Fri, Dec 11, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026JuntendoRIKEN AIPRIKEN Center for Advanced IntellBayesian & probabilistic methods

Score-based Variational Inference via Quantum Maximally Mixed States

Yuchen CONG, Zerui Tao, Chao Li, Zhe Sun and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Imperial College LondonUCLShanghai University of Finance aBayesian & probabilistic methods

Random-Projection Tree Stein Variational Gradient Descent

Shishuo Guo, Xiaoyuan Cheng, Zhuo Sun

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Instituto Superior TecnicoVector InstituteU LisbonInstituto de TelecomunicacoesRIKEN AIPBayesian & probabilistic methods

The Bayesian Learning Rule Beyond KL Geometry

SOPHIA SKLAVIADIS, Wu Lin, Mario Figueiredo, André Martins and 2 more

Paris Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 12:30 PM–2:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U ManchesterU Manchester Bayesian & probabilistic methods

AgentCBO: Causal Belief Routing for Bayesian Optimization under Unknown Graphs

Qiyu Wei, Xin Zhang, Richard Allmendinger, Mauricio A Álvarez

Paris Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 12:30 PM–2:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026KU LeuvenBayesian & probabilistic methods

Approximate Bayesian inference with exchangeable distributions for neurosymbolic AI

Lennert De Smet

Paris Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 12:30 PM–2:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026AFRLBayesian & probabilistic methods

Bayesian Backprop as Belief Propagation: Single-Pass Predictive Uncertainty

Wen Dong

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Massachusetts AmherstU Massachusetts at AmherstDepartment of Computer Science, Bayesian & probabilistic methods

Bayesian Optimization on Function Spaces via Sparse RKHS Manifolds

Davide Sartor, Meghan E Huber, Donghyun Kim, Nathan Wycoff

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Massachusetts Institute of TechnMITU Wisconsin MadisonBayesian & probabilistic methods

From Likelihood Convergence to Parameter Convergence in POMDPs

Jack Zhang, Saurabh Amin, Jiawei zhang, Patrick Jaillet

Atlanta Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026SpotlightUniversity College LondonGoogle Deepmind / UCLBayesian & probabilistic methods

Learning Gaussian Conditional Distributions using Neural Ratio Estimation is Hard

Pierre Glaser, Arthur Gretton

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026ShanghaiBayesian & probabilistic methods

Serialization Tax in Shared-Latent Exchangeable Decisions

Siming Zhang, Zhehui Shen, Shijie Chen, Xinle Gu and 2 more

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U New South WalesImperial College LondonBayesian & probabilistic methods

Beyond Langevin: Sampling Multimodal Densities using the Witten Laplacian on 1-forms

Sahani Pathiraja, Panos Parpas

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026KAISTMila - Quebec Artificial IntelliNew YorkLawZero / Mila / U. MontrealBayesian & probabilistic methods

Probabilistic Recursive Reasoning

Junyeob Baek, Mingyu Jo, Minsu Kim, Mengye Ren and 2 more

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026National University of SingaporeLawrence Livermore National LabsU ManchesterBayesian & probabilistic methods

Regret-Based $(\epsilon,\delta)$-optimal Stopping Criteria for Bayesian Optimization

Haowei Wang, Jingyi Wang, Qiyu Wei

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026HarvardBayesian & probabilistic methods

Gaeta-Lie Neural SDEs: Symmetry-Regularized Learning of Stochastic Dynamics

Shida Liu, Sumit Sinha, L Mahadevan

Atlanta Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026department of statistics, LundTata Institute of Fundamental ReBayesian & probabilistic methods

Mesh Invaiant Infinite Dimensional Adaptive MCMC for Latent Gaussian Processes

Jonas Wallin, Sreekar Vadlamani

Paris Poster Session 4, Thu, Dec 10, 5:30 PM–7:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026KTH Royal Institute of TechnologKTH Royal Institute of TechnologBayesian & probabilistic methods

Differentiable Systematic Resampling for Variational Sequential Monte Carlo

Fredrik Cumlin, Saikat Chatterjee

Atlanta Poster Session 3, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U California, Santa CruzBayesian & probabilistic methods

Posterior Alternative Calibration in Ambiguous Inverse Problems

Jing Qiao, Yiyang Guo, Hao Ye

Atlanta Poster Session 3, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Indian Institute of Technology, IIT KanpurBayesian & probabilistic methods

Scale-Invariant Empirical-Bayes Laplace Approximation for ReLU Networks

Shivam Pal, Piyush Rai

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Chonnam NationalU ChicagoPurdueBayesian & probabilistic methods

Statistical Matching via Schr\"odinger Bridge beyond Conditional Independence

Eunho Koo, Jinwon Sohn, Tongseok Lim

Atlanta Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U California, BerkeleyHarvard University, HarvardLos Alamos National LaboratoryU California BerkeleyBayesian & probabilistic methods

Fast Accurate Quantum Monte Carlo without Metropolis Adjustment

Reuben Cohn-Gordon, Gabriel Pescia, Sumner N Hearth, Jakob Robnik and 2 more

Atlanta Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026DurhamU DalhousieU DelawareFlorida InternationalBayesian & probabilistic methods

A Revisit of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Efficiency on Bayesian Neural Networks

Cuong Ngoc Nguyen, Lam Ho, Vu Dinh, Georgios Karagiannis and 1 more

Paris Poster Session 4, Thu, Dec 10, 5:30 PM–7:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Université Paris-SaclayENSIIELaboratory of Mathematics and MoENSIIE - CapgeminiBayesian & probabilistic methods

Beyond Imputation: Mask-Adaptive Conformal Prediction via Tree Embeddings on General Missing Data Mechanisms

Jiarong Fan, Juhyun Park, Thi Phuong Thuy Vo, Nicolas Brunel

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Massachusetts Institute of TechnBayesian & probabilistic methods

Deep Ensembles for Epistemic Uncertainty: A Frequentist Perspective

Anchit Jain, Stephen Bates

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Imperial College LondonBayesian & probabilistic methods

Complex Schrödinger Bridges

Dong-Sig Han, Tolga Birdal

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Wrocław, SolvdUniveristy of Wroclaw, TooplooxUnivesity of WarsawWarsaw University of Technology,Wroclaw University of Science anBayesian & probabilistic methods

Robust Importance Sampling for Rare Events via Constrained Gaussian Mixtures

Pawel Lorek, Rafal Nowak, Rafał Topolnicki, Tomasz Trzcinski and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Wisconsin - MadisonPekingUW-MadisonBayesian & probabilistic methods

Noise-Level KL Rates for Multi-Marginal Schrödinger Bridge Surrogates

Hui Chen, Shen Xu, Vikas Singh

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U OxfordImperial College LondonBayesian & probabilistic methods

Symmetry Guarantees Statistic Recovery in Variational Inference

Symmetry in variational inference forces approximate minimizers to recover target statistics under misspecification, unifying prior results and yielding new directional guarantees.

Daniel Marks, Dario Paccagnan, Mark van der Wilk

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Toronto/ Vector InstituteImperial College LondonU TorontoMcMasterBayesian & probabilistic methods

Multi-Marginal Couplings for Metropolis--Hastings

Multi-marginal coupling of Metropolis-Hastings chains via shared-randomness Poisson Monte Carlo improves coalescence rates and reduces meeting times up to 50%.

Truong Buu Phan, Gergely Flamich, Ashish Khisti, Shahab Asoodeh

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026INRIA - Ecole Normale SuperieureBayesian & probabilistic methods

A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation

A spectral framework estimates relative log-densities via closed-form chi-squared least-squares, yielding explicit divergence and potential estimators with convergence guarantees.

Francis Bach

Paris Poster Session 4, Thu, Dec 10, 5:30 PM–7:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U EdinburghBayesian & probabilistic methods

Even More Guarantees for Variational Inference in the Presence of Symmetries

Symmetric targets let misspecified variational inference recover exact means and correlations via KL or α-divergences without log-concavity assumptions.

Lena Zellinger, Antonio Vergari

Paris Poster Session 5, Fri, Dec 11, 11:30 AM–1:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U ChicagoThe University of ChicagoBayesian & probabilistic methods

Empirical Bayes Rebiasing

An empirical Bayes rebiasing method learns the bias distribution to recover shorter calibrated intervals from noisy biased estimates, improving precision in LLM evaluations and genetic analysis.

Wanyi Ling, Sida Li, Junming Guan, Nikolaos Ignatiadis

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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