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NeurIPS 2026U TorontoU of Toronto; VectorBayesian & probabilistic methods

Sequential Probability Assignment against Smoothed Adversaries with Unknown Base Measure

Ziyi Liu, Dan Roy

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U PennsylvaniaBayesian & probabilistic methods

Inference and Uncertainty Quantification for Streaming $r$-PCA

Haoshu Xu, Hongzhe Li

Atlanta Poster Session 3, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Stanford University, Department StanfordStanfordBayesian & probabilistic methods

An exact information theory of generalization phase transitions in Bayesian diffusion models

Henry Hunt, Mason Kamb, Surya Ganguli

Paris Poster Session 6, Fri, Dec 11, 2:30 PM–4:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026IndependentHarvardBayesian & probabilistic methods

Archimedean Copula Inference via Taylor-Mode AD

Cambridge Yang, Dongdong Li

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026The University of TokyoThe University of Tokyo/RIKEN-AIBayesian & probabilistic methods

Parallel Computation Algorithms and Convergence Guarantees for Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics

Yoshihito Okamoto, Huanjian Zhou, Taiji Suzuki

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026SpotlightEindhoven University of TechnoloEindhoven University of TechnoloU AmsterdamBayesian & probabilistic methods

On the Tightness and Computational Tractability of Higher-Dimensional Confidence Sequences

Fabian Denoodt, Sibylle Hess, Joaquin Vanschoren, Christian Andersson Naesseth

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U CambridgeBayesian & probabilistic methods

Contour Monte Carlo: Sampling via Energy Level Sets

Varun Jain, Hong Ge

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Universität RegensburgBayesian & probabilistic methods

Constrained Bombieri Point Processes

Cornelius Brand

Paris Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–7:00 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026TsinghuaNational University of SingaporeUBCBayesian & probabilistic methods

How Much Information is Needed for Accurate Kalman Filtering?

Wenhan Cao, Xuyang Chen, Shuyuan Wang, Lin Zhao

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026DukeBayesian & probabilistic methods

Extending ROC Analysis to Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction with an Interval-Based AUC (iAUC)

Yuqi Li, Matthew Engelhard

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U CambridgeU Texas at AustinThe University of Texas at AustiUT AustinBayesian & probabilistic methods

One-Shot Private Confidence Regions via Resampling

Po-Ling Loh, Debepsita Mukherjee, Shourya Pandey, Purnamrita Sarkar

Atlanta Poster Session 4, Thu, Dec 10, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026The Institute of Statistical MatRIKENRIKEN AIPBayesian & probabilistic methods

Incorporating Neural Network Structure in the Bayesian Learning Rule

Eiki Shimizu, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan, Thomas Möllenhoff

Sydney Poster Session 1, Tue, Dec 8, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026PekingBayesian & probabilistic methods

Denoising Implicit Variational Inference

Zitong Wang, Zekun Wu, Longlin Yu, Cheng Zhang

Atlanta Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U MichiganBayesian & probabilistic methods

Cross-Fitting for Neural Posterior Estimation

Jeffrey Regier

Atlanta Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026FudanIndiana University, School of MeOregon Health SciencesShanghai University of Finance aBayesian & probabilistic methods

Efficient Variational Inference for Log-Gaussian Cox Processes via Voronoi Tessellation

Yanshuo Liu, Jiaheng Qu, Sha Cao, Chi Zhang and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Laboratoire d'Informatique Aix Marseille UnivAix MarseilleBayesian & probabilistic methods

Online Active Testing: Adaptive Importance Sampling for Unbiased Risk Estimation in Data Streams

Hugo Schmutz, Hachem Kadri, Thierry Artières

Paris Poster Session 2, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–7:00 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Shanghai Jiao TongBayesian & probabilistic methods

Uncertainty Quantification of Least Squares Estimator for Generalized Orthogonal Procrustes Problems

Shenghan Luo

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität MInstitute of Computer Science, LStats Department, LMU MunichL3S Research Center, Leibniz UniDFKI (German Research Center forBayesian & probabilistic methods

Deferred Aggregation in Hierarchical Bayesian Optimization

Valentin Margraf, Jonas Hanselle, Julian Rodemann, Marcel Wever and 2 more

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026National University of SingaporeNational University of SingaporeBayesian & probabilistic methods

Conformal Prediction for Distribution-to-Distribution Regression

Trung-Khang Tran, Tuan Hoang, Viet-Hoang Tran, Tan Nguyen

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Mohamed bin Zayed University of Skolkovo Institute of Science anTechnology Innovation InstituteBayesian & probabilistic methods

VecUQ-OT: Aggregating Uncertainty Measures via Multivariate Ranks

Nikita Kotelevskii, Vladimir Kondratyev, Maiya Goloburda, Alexander Fishkov and 3 more

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026OralLMU Munich, MCMLMohamed bin Zayed University of Technology Innovation InstituteMarburguniversityBayesian & probabilistic methods

The Aleatoric-Epistemic Dichotomy of Uncertainty is Meaningful and Indispensable for Machine Learning

Yusuf Sale, Nikita Kotelevskii, Maxim Panov, Eyke Hüllermeier

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026CyberAgent / TohokuMBZUAI / RIKEN AIPBayesian & probabilistic methods

Posterior-Tracking for Best-Arm Identification in Bernoulli Bandits

Kaito Ariu, Junpei Komiyama

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U British ColumbiaU PittsburghBayesian & probabilistic methods

Routing as a Singular Reparameterization: A Closed-Form Pushforward Prior and Exact Bayesian Complexity in a Minimal Proxy

Ali Mehrabian, Mahdi Mazloum

Atlanta Poster Session 6, Fri, Dec 11, 4:30 PM–7:30 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Johns HopkinsBayesian & probabilistic methods

Fixed-Size Active Statistical Inference

Erik Skalnes, Michael Oberst

Atlanta Poster Session 3, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026ByteDance Inc.PurduePurdue University Bayesian & probabilistic methods

Breaking the $\sqrt{d}$ Communication Barrier in Federated Sampling with Adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Jiajun Liang, Linxuan Wang, Guang Lin, Qifan Song

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U British ColumbiaU MelbourneU British Columbia + AmiiBayesian & probabilistic methods

Bet Imaginatively, not Historically in Independent-Data Sequential Testing

Nathaniel Xu, Feng Liu, Danica J. Sutherland

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Electronic Science and TechnolBayesian & probabilistic methods

Recovery Guarantees for Posterior Sampling of One-Bit Compressed Sensing

jing ma, Yujia Wu, Zhaoqiang Liu

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U OsloU CambridgeU Oslo, INTEGREAT, TRUSTBayesian & probabilistic methods

Breaking Curse of Dimensionality for Mutual Information Estimation with Vine Copulas

Sigurd Holmsen, Berit Øksnes, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Sylvia Richardson and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 2, Tue, Dec 8, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026PurdueBayesian & probabilistic methods

Sticky Jump Diffusions: A Unifying Framework for Discrete, Continuous, and Hybrid Diffusion

Pascal J Dube, Patrick Pynadath, Jeremy Lu, Yuan Gao and 1 more

Atlanta Poster Session 5, Fri, Dec 11, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026JuntendoRIKEN AIPRIKEN Center for Advanced IntellBayesian & probabilistic methods

Score-based Variational Inference via Quantum Maximally Mixed States

Yuchen CONG, Zerui Tao, Chao Li, Zhe Sun and 1 more

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Imperial College LondonUCLShanghai University of Finance aBayesian & probabilistic methods

Random-Projection Tree Stein Variational Gradient Descent

Shishuo Guo, Xiaoyuan Cheng, Zhuo Sun

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Instituto Superior TecnicoVector InstituteU LisbonInstituto de TelecomunicacoesRIKEN AIPBayesian & probabilistic methods

The Bayesian Learning Rule Beyond KL Geometry

SOPHIA SKLAVIADIS, Wu Lin, Mario Figueiredo, André Martins and 2 more

Paris Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 12:30 PM–2:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U ManchesterU Manchester Bayesian & probabilistic methods

AgentCBO: Causal Belief Routing for Bayesian Optimization under Unknown Graphs

Qiyu Wei, Xin Zhang, Richard Allmendinger, Mauricio A Álvarez

Paris Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 12:30 PM–2:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026KU LeuvenBayesian & probabilistic methods

Approximate Bayesian inference with exchangeable distributions for neurosymbolic AI

Lennert De Smet

Paris Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 12:30 PM–2:30 PM, Paris Poster Hall · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026AFRLBayesian & probabilistic methods

Bayesian Backprop as Belief Propagation: Single-Pass Predictive Uncertainty

Wen Dong

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U Massachusetts AmherstU Massachusetts at AmherstDepartment of Computer Science, Bayesian & probabilistic methods

Bayesian Optimization on Function Spaces via Sparse RKHS Manifolds

Davide Sartor, Meghan E Huber, Donghyun Kim, Nathan Wycoff

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026Massachusetts Institute of TechnMITU Wisconsin MadisonBayesian & probabilistic methods

From Likelihood Convergence to Parameter Convergence in POMDPs

Jack Zhang, Saurabh Amin, Jiawei zhang, Patrick Jaillet

Atlanta Poster Session 1, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall C1 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026SpotlightUniversity College LondonGoogle Deepmind / UCLBayesian & probabilistic methods

Learning Gaussian Conditional Distributions using Neural Ratio Estimation is Hard

Pierre Glaser, Arthur Gretton

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026ShanghaiBayesian & probabilistic methods

Serialization Tax in Shared-Latent Exchangeable Decisions

Siming Zhang, Zhehui Shen, Shijie Chen, Xinle Gu and 2 more

Sydney Poster Session 3, Wed, Dec 9, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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NeurIPS 2026U New South WalesImperial College LondonBayesian & probabilistic methods

Beyond Langevin: Sampling Multimodal Densities using the Witten Laplacian on 1-forms

Sahani Pathiraja, Panos Parpas

Sydney Poster Session 4, Wed, Dec 9, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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