The Power of Second Order Methods for Sequence Preconditioning
Second-order VAW on short ARX models achieves dimension-free regret O(δ⁻⁴ log² T) for marginally stable linear sequence prediction via universal preconditioning and Faber polynomial analysis.
Published 2026Paris Poster Session 5 · Fri, Dec 11, 11:30 AM–1:30 PM local time · Paris Poster HallarXiv ↗OpenReview ↗
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Abstract
Sequence prediction methods for linear dynamical systems with long memory, i.e. marginally stable systems, typically achieve regret that grows linearly with the hidden dimension of the underlying generative model. While many methods have been developed to address this regime with varying success, we show that simply using the second-order Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth (VAW) algorithm to learn a short autoregressive-with-inputs (ARX) model achieves astoundingly strong results: for bounded sequential data from a marginally-stable linear dynamical system with spectra in the complex disk except for angular wedge of width $δ$ around the negative real axis, this algorithm achieves dimension-free regret $O\left( δ^{-4} \log^2 T \right)$. These bounds are state-of-the-art to our knowledge. The key components for our result come from 1) using the theory of ``Universal Sequence Preconditioning'' (USP) \cite{marsdenuniversal} to prove the existence of an optimal setting of autoregressive coefficients, 2) the application of VAW which takes better advantage of the memory compression provided by USP, and 3) the analysis of Faber polynomials on circular sectors to extend these results to systems with complex spectra.