Calibrating Scientific Foundation Models with Inference-Time Stochastic Attention

Abstract

Transformer-based scientific foundation models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, but current architectures give deterministic outputs and provide limited support for calibrated predictive uncertainty. We propose Stochastic Attention, a sample average lightweight inference-time modification that randomizes attention by replacing softmax weights with normalized multinomial samples controlled by a single concentration parameter, and produces predictive ensembles without retraining. To set this parameter, we introduce a calibration objective that matches the stochastic attention output with the target, yielding an efficient univariate post-hoc tuning problem. We evaluate this mechanism on scientific foundation models for weather and time-series forecasting, as well as several regression tasks. Across benchmarks against uncertainty-aware baselines, we find that Sample Average Stochastic Attention achieves the strongest native calibration and the sharpest prediction intervals at comparable calibration, with adaptation costs nearly three orders of magnitude lower than the next-best baseline.