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Forecasting Downstream Performance of LLMs With Proxy Metrics

Aggregating token-level statistics over expert solutions yields proxy metrics that outperform loss-based baselines for model selection, data selection, and training-time forecasting.

Arkil Patel, Siva Reddy, Marius Mosbach, Dzmitry Bahdanau

Sydney Poster Session 6, Thu, Dec 10, 5:00 PM–8:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026 · ▲ 12 on Hugging Face · Code ★ 11

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AI panel: 15 of 20 reviewers recommend it
lenient 5/5
medium 8/10
strict 2/5