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When Guessing is Rewarded: Rethinking Language Model Evaluation with Distributional Uncertainty Scoring

A distributional uncertainty metric distinguishes harmful overconfidence from abstention, revealing negative scores across half of benchmarks and widespread model hallucination.

Tom Burns

Sydney Poster Session 5, Thu, Dec 10, 10:00 AM–1:00 PM, Hall 1-4 · Published 2026

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AI panel: 14 of 20 reviewers recommend it
lenient 4/5
medium 9/10
strict 1/5